It’s amazing how many people are intrigued by the creation of EntreCard, the newest traffic exchange system to sweep the blogosphere. The idea of exchanging site views for credits is nothing new, but this particular attempt has captured the attention of many, due to its networking, advertising, and real traffic building abilities.

It’s still very early days, and I began to wonder recently where it would end up. Is the infectious nature of it down to it being new, and highly promoted, or is there more substance behind it than mere hype? Whilst no one can predict the future, there are a few indicators as to how it may fare further down the road.

There is no doubt that if you are active in the system, you will get lots of visitors to your blog. That’s been proven time and time again. It’s also true that getting your “business card” on a high profile blog can give you even more traffic. The category based card system also means that you can sometimes come across some good blogs you hadn’t noticed before.

Here’s a few of the questions I asked myself before coming to my own conclusions:

Is the traffic worthless?

No traffic is worthless, but it is true that by its very nature, EntreCard produces more quantity than quality. It has been shown by some of the more enterprising users, that you can make the traffic stick, if your content is appealling to ECers, or you offer some kind of incentive to stay.

The problem is that many bloggers do not have the time to remain active, and provide ECers with a continued reason to stay, or subscribe. I’m a good example of this, as I certainly don’t have the time to do any kind of card dropping. What we may therefore see happening, as with most traffic exchanges, is that there is a subset of users that remain active, and basically exchange visits with one another.

There would be no reason to continue if this were to happen, since even if you received the visits of a few hundred bloggers each day, it would just be for the purposes of card dropping. There seems to be little danger of this happening at present, as growth of new users continues, but the danger comes when the user levels start to plateau.

Is the system inward looking?

The nice thing about EntreCard is the combination of traditional credit building strategies, with a real advertising outlet. Credits aren’t used to enable your site to be viewed by others, they are used to display a “business card” on another blog. That marks the largest change from the traditional traffic in my opinion, but is it enough?

The notion of “chain-dropping” could have a very detrimental impact on the system, as it takes us back in the direction of the traditional exchange model. Users are inadvertently crippling the system whenever this takes place. And yes, for the few days I was active, I was guilty of this too! It’s very hard not to do it to some extent, because you will find a lot of blogs that really don’t interest you.

The other problem is whether it’s just bloggers interacting with the system. Whilst there is no harm in bloggers being a large portion of the userbase, if they are the only group interacting, then it severely limits the effectivenes of EC. Again, we could end up with a situation where bloggers just exchange daily visits with each other - which after a while offers no real benefit from my point of view (the ones who like your blog will have subscribed anyway).

Is the value in the right place?

This is the one question where I can be most decisive. The answer is, no, I don’t think value has been identified correctly by EC, and it’s a problem that extends to all traffic exchange programs. Value is placed on blog owners, and visits to the blog (its a traffic driving device after all), but because of the credit incentive involved, the value is limited (for the reasons discussed earlier).

A blog is built on its content, that is the only thing a blog has going for it in the long term. A successful long-term traffic device should therefore be built with content at the heart of it. Yes, if a blog’s content is good, it will attract some of those EC visitors to it, but that is more of a bi-product than anything else.

I will admit, I am a little biased in this analysis, because of the development I have done on my own traffic driving device for OIOpublisher - which is completely based on inter-twining content and relevant blogs. I came up with the formula for it long before EC existed, but the one thing I had in mind for it was the idea that we have to fundamentally move away from a traffic exchange model.

And it is that basic logic that has led me to the conclusions I have reached with EntreCard itself so far. I am in no competition with their system, in fact they could well compliment each other, so my thoughts should not be dis-coloured by any wish to dis-credit them.

Effort vs Reward System?

It seems that the more cards a user drops, the higher their advertising costs become. This is due to the fact that when you drop, your card appears in the blogger’s inbox, and they may often reciprocate. This links in with the earlier point of placing value in the right areas. If I drop 300 cards per day, that doesn’t make my blog any more worthy, nor does it help me in the long run. If my costs get too high, people won’t bother advertising (since people can already gauge a blog’s popularity quite well).

The system doesn’t seem quite properly tied together at this early stage - and instead of it being viewed as a free advertising outlet, many seem to view it as a popularity contest between bloggers. And as I’ve already said, that leads to an inward looking system, which kills off the idea.

Initially, I thought that moving away from “drops” to advertising requests may be a better way to do things, but that risks the yo-yo effect (fewer requests, price goes down, more requests, price goes up etc). Nevertheless, the simple method being used now seems inadequate as a measure of popularity. It’s a good way to get people using it, but longer term, it seems detrimental in my opinion. And it seems others agree with that notion.

Is there enough control?

No, not at all. It feels far too like a free for all to me right now. Anyone can drop a card anywhere, which clogs the system, and artificually raises costs. Inflation could run riot later on. I already suggested via the feedback form that there should be a way for blog owners to limit dropping, via categories (as focused or as wide-ranging as wanted).

This might however have the affect of creating lots more user subsets, that just exchange cards between each other. But then again, as mentioned before, shouldn’t the main traffic come from users outside the system? The readers and users of blogs not within EntreCard. That’s the only way I can see EC being effective in the long term, else it really will become inward, and not useful.

The Conclusions?

There is no way at this stage I can give a definitive view. EntreCard is still in its early growth stage, and so until that subsides, we won’t know how the system will pan out. However, my overwhelming feeling is that it could well become closed and inward looking in the long run, with chain-dropping becoming the norm, and users simply exchanging visits with each other, for no real value.

There is a networking potential (for bloggers), but you can get that at so many other web venues too, so why should the EC system stick out in the long run. It also looks as though there is very little incentive for larger blogs to remain active (up to now, its always been small bloggers, or large bloggers being paid), but one of the main benefits of the system has been the ability to freely advertise on blogs more influential than your own.

Possible solution: if EC could be properly monetised, then “premium user” spots could be awarded to large blogs, who are paid to reserve ad space on their blog via the widget. This provides a real benefit for larger blogs, whilst keeping the appeal of EC higher, by letting people advertise in small bursts on influential blogs.

The saving grace here could be the card advertising feature, that gives people outside the system the opportunity to interact (which is crucial). As long as people keep clicking, and finding interesting content at the other end, then EC will serve a valid purpose.

I’ve yet to remove the widget from my blog, but I don’t know how long I shall keep it there, considering my lack of time (and interest) in being active, and card dropping every day I’ve now decided to remove it for the time being, after careful consideration. I’m not so interested in the direction it is going (it might be right for you though!), and don’t like the ‘groupie’ attitude that is developing amongst some of the more hardcore users.